#871: Recognition Without Continuity: Selective Attenuation of Mathematics Identity Across the High School-to-STEM Transition

Recognition is widely understood as central to mathematics participation, yet whether recognition-based identity persists across educational transitions remains untested at scale. Using nationally representative longitudinal data from 23,000 students over six years, this study examines how distinct dimensions of mathematics identity predict proximal motivation and distal STEM major selection. Results show that recognition-based identity (feeling seen as a “math person”) strongly predicts proximal engagement but loses 99% of its predictive power for STEM major selection across the high school–college transition. In contrast, internally held identity (centrality) remains robust, directly predicting STEM major choice (OR = 1.78, p < .001). Typicality fully attenuates for distal outcomes (OR = 1.01, p = .97), while female students had 61% lower odds of pursuing STEM regardless of identity strength. Findings suggest identity portability depends on source: recognition may initiate participation, but only internalized identity transfers across institutional transitions and shapes long-term educational trajectories.